alphanonceOscurant · Trading
landscape랜드스케이프2026-04-28 23:40 UTC
Funding Farming펀딩 파밍

Funding Dispersion펀딩 디스퍼전

universe (30)유니버스 (30): 1000PEPE, AAVE, ADA, ARB, AVAX, BIO, BNB, CHIP, CRV, DOGE, DOT, ENA, FARTCOIN, HYPE, LINK, MON, NEAR, ORDI, PENGU, SOL, STABLE, STRK, SUI, TAO, VIRTUAL, WIF, XLM, XPL, XRP, ZEC
2024-01-012026-04-24
2026-04-28 23:42 UTC
REJECTEDOOS Sharpe -6.21, hit 4.5% (n=1218). Net of fees/slip the spread does not clear costs; signal has no edge after retail microstructure.OOS Sharpe -6.21, hit 4.5% (n=1218). fee/slip 차감 후 음수 EV. cross-venue 펀딩 스프레드는 비용 못 이김.

performance (best params)퍼포먼스 (최적 파라미터)

sharpe샤프 -9.19
sortino소르티노 -9.14
calmar칼마 -9.87
ir vs btcIR vs BTC
max dd최대 낙폭 -0.30%
dd duration낙폭 기간 36.00d
under water수면아래 97.30%
hit rate적중률 2.56%
win/loss승/패 1.37
turnover (a)회전율 (연) 30.78x
fee drag수수료 드래그 1362.73%
capacity util용량 활용도 20.00%

best param set (by total net pnl)최적 파라미터 세트 (net pnl 기준)

k_entry진입 k 12.0
maker_ratio메이커 비율 0.70
max_hold최대 보유 72h
n_trades거래수 78
avg_gross평균 총이익 1.5 bps
avg_net평균 순이익 -19.5 bps
hit_rate적중률 2.6%
total_net_pnl총 순손익 $-303

param sweep — avg net bps per trade파라미터 스윕 — 거래당 평균 net bps

k_entry진입 kmax_hold (h)최대 보유(h)mr=0.3mr=0.5mr=0.7n
2.08-23.5-21.0-18.410137
2.024-20.3-17.7-15.210137
2.072-15.8-13.3-10.810137
3.08-22.8-20.3-17.84263
3.024-19.3-16.8-14.34263
3.072-15.2-12.7-10.24263
5.08-22.7-20.2-17.71006
5.024-19.8-17.3-14.81006
5.072-18.0-15.5-13.01006
8.08-23.9-21.5-19.0192
8.024-22.3-19.8-17.3192
8.072-21.5-19.0-16.5192
12.08-25.4-22.8-20.278
12.024-24.5-22.1-19.578
12.072-24.6-22.1-19.578

walk-forward · 6m train / 3m test / step 3m워크포워드 · train 6개월 / test 3개월 / step 3개월

aggregate OOS:집계 OOS:n=236pnl=-977$avg_net=-20.7bpshit=4.2%
train학습test검증best k최적 khold보유nnet $순 $hit%적중%avg_net bps평균순 bps
2024-01-012024-06-292024-06-292024-09-278.072h43-2010.0%-23.3
2024-03-312024-09-272024-09-272024-12-268.072h29-1293.4%-22.3
2024-06-292024-12-262024-12-262025-03-268.072h26-8811.5%-17.0
2024-09-272025-03-262025-03-262025-06-248.072h25-1200.0%-24.0
2024-12-262025-06-242025-06-242025-09-228.072h56-2391.8%-21.3
2025-03-262025-09-222025-09-222025-12-218.072h48-1688.3%-17.5
2025-06-242025-12-212025-12-212026-03-218.072h9-3211.1%-17.8

per-asset attribution (best params)자산별 기여도 (최적 파라미터)

base자산trades거래수net pnl $순손익 $avg net bps평균순 bpsavg winner bps평균 승자 bpsavg loser bps평균 패자 bps
BIO1+5+24.5+24.5
AVAX1-4-17.7-17.7
1000PEPE1-4-19.8-19.8
XPL1-4-20.6-20.6
MON1-4-20.9-20.9
BNB1-4-20.9-20.9
ORDI2-5-13.6-13.6
ADA2-9-23.0-23.0
HYPE3-9-15.4-15.4
VIRTUAL2-9-23.2-23.2
SOL2-10-23.9-23.9
FARTCOIN5-10-10.1+32.3-20.6
NEAR3-11-18.1-18.1
SUI3-12-19.3-19.3
XRP3-12-19.4-19.4
AAVE3-12-20.0-20.0
WIF3-12-20.6-20.6
ARB3-12-20.8-20.8
DOT3-13-22.1-22.1
DOGE4-14-17.3-17.3
LINK4-14-17.8-17.8
PENGU3-18-30.0-30.0
STRK4-19-23.8-23.8
CRV4-19-24.2-24.2
TAO5-20-20.2-20.2
ZEC5-22-22.4-22.4
XLM6-25-21.2-21.2

fee + slippage: 2× enter+exit legs × (blended maker/taker + 2bps const slip) ≈ 23 bps/trade. gross > cost required to clear. at 30 alts over 2024-01→present, structural cost > carry.수수료 + 슬리피지: 2× 진입+청산 레그 × (블렌디드 메이커/테이커 + 2bps 상수 슬립) ≈ 거래당 23bps. 비용을 넘기려면 총이익 > 비용 필요. 30 알트·2024-01→현재 구간에서 구조적으로 비용 > 캐리.